March 29, 2010

S&P 500 Index: This Week Has Bullish Seasonality

There seems to be a good seasonality in the week before Easter. Despite being a low volume week, the S&P 500 Index has managed a 1.77% average weeekly return over the last 10 years:

"Going back to 1945, the S&P 500 has been positive nearly two-thirds of the time in the week leading up to Easter for an average gain of 0.56%. The week after Easter has been less positive. On the Monday after Easter, the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 0.16%, while the week after Easter has seen a paltry average return of 0.03%.

Looking at just the last ten years of returns shows a similar, although more positive trend. In the week before Easter, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.77% with positive returns 60% of the time. Interestingly, even though most traders are expecting a quiet week, recent history suggests the opposite. In seven out of the last ten years, the S&P 500 has seen a move (up or down) of more than 1%. In the week after Easter, the S&P 500 has averaged gains of 0.72% with positive returns 70% of the time."
in BIG

Related ETF`s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY)and ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS)

No comments: