Hugh Hendry is one of the best known hedge fund managers in the UK. He is a contrarian and has been wrong since March. He is in the deflation camp and is betting on a US Dollar rally:
“Some of the strongest deflationary forces will be felt in Europe, so we have the biggest overweight there in government bonds. The rest of the world is overweight emerging markets, but we have nothing. The rest of the world is terrified of the dollar. We are trying to create some positive dollar exposure. If risk aversion returns, the dollar will rise and we will make money. If it doesn’t happen, we won’t lose any.”
4 comments:
I believe Hugh sees deflation as an intermediate stage before inflation is recognised.
The 10 year bund has hardly changed from March to December so I would guess he has done OK.
He is contrarian and therefore I guess wouldn't expect to have made the equite gains going with the crowd.
Faber and Rogers are also expecting a dollar rally.
Dylan
Yes, Dil
He has been bearish all the way and probably holding some very big short positions
He was very bearish on April saying that all we were seeing was a 5 week rally on risk....
Thanks HMS, hadn't come across that 5 week quote before.
His team were very bullish on agriculture and agrichemicals last year whcih they admit they got wrong.
I do remember him being very strong on Iceland and he is energetically stimulating.
Would be interested to know what he thinks of the increase in the Future Inflation Gauges.
My guess he would say early days.
Hugh is right on US Dollar! I had also shorted AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURUSD.
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