February 22, 2010

Richard Russell: The Dangers In The Bond Market

Investors like Julian Robertson, Richard Russell and Jim Rogers , have expressed recently their concerns over the potential for much lower government bond prices and higher long interest rates. Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters has long feared a spike in interest rates and in a recent note he explained that the end of quantitative easing has bond investors worried over the future of interest rates. Russell believes higher rates are the next big move in the bond market:

“Older subscribers may remember that I said that the Fed could continue its “quantitative easing” (printing money) until the bond market says it can’t. Below is a daily chart of the 30-year Treasury bond. The bond market doesn’t like what it sees. I view the pattern on this chart as a huge, down-slanting head-and-shoulder top with the bond sitting right on support. The bond appears weak, and if support is violated, interest rates will be heading higher. And that’s the last thing the Fed wants at this time.” Richard Russell

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