Commodities Performance Year To Date. Natural Gas Lags.

Bespoke posted on their website their regular Commodity Snapshot:

"Orange juice has gotten off to a nice start (+13.15%), while natural gas has once again resumed its seemingly perpetual decline (-13.75%). Platinum is the second best performing commodity shown with a gain of 5.34%, followed by gold at +1.59%, and oil at +0.34%. While gold and platinum are up in 2010, silver is down 2.69%."

When I read the words, "seemingly perpetual decline" I immediately thought "bottom". But interestingly enough the CEOs of natural gas related companies like Chesapeake Energy (CHK) or SandRidge Energy (SD) are very bearish on the commodity and are directing resources from natural gas to oil. Chesapeake Energy (CHK) CEO was interviewed by Jim Cramer recently and Tom Ward, SandRidge Energy`s CEO hosted SD`s conference call last Friday.

Related ETF`s: iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (SLV), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD) , United States Oil Fund LP (USO),

"All Star" Hedge Fund Managers: The Euro Currency Will Fall To Parity Against The US Dollar

After being hated and heavily shorted the US Dollar is now called to rise against the euro currency. Some hedge fund managers are expecting the euro to fall to parity against the US Dollar. The euro is currently trading at 1.3580:

"Some heavyweight hedge funds have launched large bearish bets against the euro in moves that are reminiscent of the trading action at the height of the U.S. financial crisis.

The big bets are emerging amid gatherings such as an exclusive "idea dinner" earlier this month that included hedge-fund titans SAC Capital Advisors LP and Soros Fund Management LLC. During the dinner, hosted by a boutique investment bank at a private townhouse in Manhattan, a small group of all-star hedge-fund managers argued that the euro is likely to fall to "parity"—or equal on an exchange basis—with the dollar, people close to the situation say.

"This is an opportunity...to make a lot of money," says Hans Hufschmid, a former senior Salomon Brothers executive who now runs GlobeOp Financial Services SA, a hedge-fund administrator in London and New York.

George Soros, head of the $27-billion asset fund manager, warned publicly last weekend that if the European Union doesn't fix its finances, "the euro may fall apart." Through a spokesman for Soros Fund Management, he declined to comment for this article." in Wall Street Journal

If they are right about this move, commodities and stocks will suffer badly.

Marc Faber: China`s Slowdown Will Impact Stock Markets

Marc Faber is fearing a chinese economic slowdown in 2010 and maybe even a collapse of the chinese economy. He told the Financial Times the its market implications:

"In Asia, we have a potential problem, China. My viewis, I am not sure China is going to collapse, but for sure it will decelerate:"

"If there is a slowdown in China, it will have deep implications in industrial commodity prices, and on the stock markets of resource producers like Australia, Russia and Brazil."

Related ETF`s: ishares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF)(NYSE:EWZ), Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (NYSE:RSX)

Related Stocks: Alcoa (AA), United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX)

Best Performing Stock Markets Over The Past 6 Years: Indonesia, India And China

The Indian stock market was the second best performer among global stock market indexes over the past six years with a return of 199 percent.

The Indonesian market was the best performer in this period, as Jakarta Composite Index registered a jump of 264.1%.

Interestingly enough, the japanese stock market measured by the Nikkei 225 Index was the only one to have recorded negative returns in the period under review. China was the third best performer with an appreciation of 117 percent, followed by 104.4 percent in South Korea and 74.2 per cent in Hong Kong.

Related ETF`s: PowerShares India Portfolio (ETF) (PIN), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (FXI) and iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF) (EWJ)

Rogoff: China’s Economic Growth Will Plunge To As Low As 2%

Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff said in the speech at a forum hosted by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets that China’s economic growth will plunge to as low as 2 percent following the collapse of a “debt- fueled bubble” within 10 years, sparking a regional recession:

“You’re not going to go a decade without having a bump in the business cycle. We would learn just how important China is when that happens. It would cause a recession everywhere surrounding the country, including Japan and South Korea, and be horrible for Latin American commodity exporters."

Rogoff added,

“Their response to the latest financial crisis clearly raised the risk that they have a debt-fueled bubble in the economy”

While Rogoff said he isn’t sure what will cause China’s bubble to pop, he said land is “the best bet” as it is “the most common source” of crises. Real estate values in Shanghai and Beijing have “taken a departure from reality”. he joins Jim Chanos, Jim Rogers and Marc Faber in that claim.

Rogoff is the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

Related ETF`s: ishares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF)

Goldman Sachs: New Trading Range For Oil Will Be 85 To 95 USD Per Barrel

The most powerful investment bank in the worls is predicting a new trading range for oil, in the 85 to 95 dollars per barrel. Oil has been trading between 70 and 80 dollars per barrel over the last few months. Goldman Sachs sees upward pressures on oil both from the demand and supply side:

"The combination of good and bad news should drive oil prices out of their recent trading range and up towards 95 dollars per barrel, according to Goldman Sachs` David Greely.

The global economy had some notable upside surprises from the U.S. and Japanese economies recently, and will also benefit from oil supply disruptions in the North Sea, France, and Venezuela.

We believe the more important trading range for WTI crude oil prices is not the low $70-low $80/bbl range they have traded in since last October, but rather the $85-$95/bbl range that long-dated WTI crude oil prices have been trading in over the same time period, and we continue to expect that as the near-term fundamentals of the oil market continue to improve, strengthening timespreads will lift WTI crude oil prices into this $85-$95/bbl range." in The Business Insider

Related ETF`s: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO)

Faber: Don`t Buy This Rally

Dr. Marc Faber, told investors today in a Bloomberg video interview to be cautious about buying stocks at current levels. As he mentioned in his 2010 outlook Faber says stocks are unlikely to reach new highs in 2010 and are more likely to correct further. He predicts the equity markets will end lower in 2010, but are unlikely to decline substantially due to government intervention:

“I would look at the market to close probably a bit lower than it started the year in 2010. Equally, I don’t think we have a huge downside risk. If the Dow and the S&P dropped, say 15-20 percent, in other words the S&P towards 900, I think there would be more stimulus and more quantitative easing.” Marc Faber in Bloomberg, February 22

In terms of the global economy, Faber also expects slowing growth. He says China is likely a bubble and that there is a 99% chance the economy will slow with a 30% chance of a full blown crash. He says the Chinese slow-down will have extremely negative impacts on the global recovery.

Related ETF`s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) ; ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS) ; iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI) ;

Richard Russell: The Dangers In The Bond Market

Investors like Julian Robertson, Richard Russell and Jim Rogers , have expressed recently their concerns over the potential for much lower government bond prices and higher long interest rates. Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters has long feared a spike in interest rates and in a recent note he explained that the end of quantitative easing has bond investors worried over the future of interest rates. Russell believes higher rates are the next big move in the bond market:

“Older subscribers may remember that I said that the Fed could continue its “quantitative easing” (printing money) until the bond market says it can’t. Below is a daily chart of the 30-year Treasury bond. The bond market doesn’t like what it sees. I view the pattern on this chart as a huge, down-slanting head-and-shoulder top with the bond sitting right on support. The bond appears weak, and if support is violated, interest rates will be heading higher. And that’s the last thing the Fed wants at this time.” Richard Russell

Jon Najarian: Bullish On Dell (DELL), Skeptical On Apple (AAPL).

Jon Najarian, told Yahoo Finance`s Tech Ticker that he is bullish on Dell (DELL) and looking to buy that stock on the dip:

"He's also looking to buy Dell on its post earnings dip. Besides the tight margins, Najarian was encouraged by the computer maker's results, noting sales beat forecasts by a billion dollars. "I like the opportunity to get in on a fire sale and I believe that's what’s happening here." He's looking to initiate a position between $12.75 and $13.00 a share."

Najarian also commented other tech names, and while is is bullish on Broadcom (BRCM) and Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRVL) and a bit skeptical on Apple (AAPL):

"Najarian owns and is bullish on Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ:BRCM) and Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRVL); two companies he thinks will show growth from Apple's iPad and the competing tablets to follow. Najarian likes the prospects for Apple (AAPL), but thinks the stock "has certainly peaked for the time being." Najarian says the stock is range-bound between 185 and 210 dollars a share until March when they start selling the iPad. For now, he still owns the stock but is "an aggressive seller of calls" ahead of the big product launch."

Jon Najarian is the co-founder of tradeMONSTER.com.

Marc Faber: Bearish On China

Marc Faber is very bearish on the chinese economy and does not recommend buying chinese stocks or assets that benefited greatly from the China`s boom in 2009:

"In general I would not buy chinese stocks here, and I would be careful of any assets that benefited greatly from the China boom in 2009 because it is not sustainable. And these assets are basically industrial commodities that have become now quite vulnerable." in CNBC

Dr. Faber added that the chinese economy will play a central role in financial markets in 2010, "I think the issue for 2010 is to what extent China will slowdown."

Percentage of Overbought Stocks Exceeds Oversold Stocks

The market has reversed its oversold condition pretty quickly. While just last week the percentage of oversold S&P 500 stocks was the highest since the lows in March 2009, now we already have more overbought than oversold stocks on the S&P 500 Index:

"The market has certainly staged a quick rebound. It was just last week when we noted that the percentage of oversold S&P 500 stocks was the highest since the lows in March 2009. As of today's close, however, the percentage of oversold S&P 500 stocks (18.4%) is now less than the percentage of overbought S&P 500 stocks (22.0%)." in Bespoke Investment Group

Related ETF`s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) and ProShares UltraShort SP500 (ETF) (NYSE: SDS)

Marc Faber: Gold Remains The Best Bet As A Currency These Days

Dr. Marc Faber, the publisher of the famous investment newsletter, Gloom, Boom and Doom, said recently that gold prices may continue to drop as low as 950 to 1,050 an ounce but that correction should be viewed as a buying opportunity and that there is not any reason to sell gold:

“The dip in gold price is a correction and this should be taken as a great buying opportunity...the weakness that gold has shown recently is no reason for investors to get out of gold investments. I still believe gold should continue to be part of every investor’s wise investment portfolio”

Recently, Faber stated that gold price wouldn't drop below the $1,000 an ounce mark ever again. A renowned investor that he is, Faber feels that it is the right time to buy gold to hedge against the printing of money from central banks around the world:


“There is no doubt the printing of money from central banks around the world is generating inflation, and it will increase going forward. That alone is a good enough reason to have gold in your investment portfolio. Gold remains the best bet as a currency these days because of the fact that the yellow metal supply is extremely limited”

Related ETF`s: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners (ETF) (GDX)

Citigroup (C) Stocks Are Being Bought By Major Hedge Funds

Some of the biggest hedge funds purchased almost half a billion shares in Citigroup (C) last quarter as more than 120 hedge funds said they bought Citigroup`s shares. In that list is John Paulson`s hedge fund and Soros Fund Management.

Paulson & Co. reported a stake equal to 506.7 million shares in Citigroup (C), adding more than 200 million shares in the fourth quarter.

Bear in mind that Citigroup (C) shares lost as much as 94 percent of its value during the credit crisis.

Citigroup (C) stock bought by hedge funds outnumbered the amount sold by a ratio of more than 10 to 1 in the October-to- December period, with about 1.2 billion shares added on a net basis, according to SEC filings.

Fairholme Capital Management LLC run by Bruce R. Berkowitz, named U.S. stock mutual-fund manager of the decade last month, bought 214.7 million shares valued at 710.7 million dollars.

Interestingly enough most of these buys are showing losses because the shares traded for an average of 4.10 dollars in the quarter, 24% above its closing price yesterday of 3.31.

Bob Doll: 7 Stocks To Buy

Robert Doll, BlackRock`s chief equity strategist, shared his stock market outlook and picked his seven favourite stocks to buy now:

“What we did in January on the selloff — and if we get another one like it, I think you lead into some of the global cyclicals: metals, energy, and retailers. They are the ones that got hit hardest when this all began and if you are believers in that the global cyclical recovery is real, you add to those names.”

“In the fourth quarter, underneath the surface of all the noise with Greece, China and politics, earnings delivery and revenue delivery has been very good and in the end, it will win out, in our view.”

Bob Doll recommends one stock in the mining sector, Freeport McMoRan (FCX), two retailers, Target (TGT) and Coach (COH); two oil companies, ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Oil (MRO) and two big-cap tech stocks, Microsoft (MSFT) and IBM (IBM).

US Stock Market: Negative Bias For This Week

Bespoke Investment Group published an interesting research note about the US stock market performance during the President`s Day shortened week. They conclude that this week has a negative bias:

"With President's Day coming up next Monday, below we highlight the historical performance of the S&P 500 during the shortened President's Day work week. President's Day (Washington's birthday) has been celebrated on the third Monday of February since 1971. Since then, the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 0.20% in the four trading days following President's Day. The market has historically gained about 0.12-0.15% during the average five-day work week, so -0.20% over four days is pretty bad.

In the table below, we broke years up based on whether the S&P 500 was up or down heading into the President's Day holiday. As shown, the S&P 500 was up YTD by the holiday in years on the left, and down YTD in years on the right. There is quite a difference based on these two scenarios. In years when the market was up heading into President's Day, the index has averaged a gain of 0.20% during President's Day week. In years when the market was down heading into President's Day, the index has averaged a decline of 0.77% during President's Day week. Unfortunately, the S&P 500 is currently down 3.55% year to date."

Related ETF`s: SPDR SP 500 (ETF) (SPY)

Barton Biggs: Bullish On Stocks

Barton Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP is bullish on stocks and said that computer shares are cheap and will benefit from a business upgrade cycle:

“There is reason to believe the U.S. is in a strong recovery."

Barton Biggs also commented the situation in the European Union and China`s monetary policy:

“The Europeans send the right message: If you can convince us that you are going to practice some discipline, we will take care of you. The Chinese authorities are doing the right thing in terms of gradually tightening.”

Biggs said China’s boosting reserve requirements should help its economy achieve a soft landing, and that a little weakness in the euro is probably good for European exports and for the European economy.

Mohamed El-Erian: the minute the sovereign is disrupted that has ripple effects through risk markets

Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian said today that debt problems in foreign countries are now also a problem for US investors. He added that while the US is not Greece it still has "some elements of Greece":

"The US is not Greece. The US has elements of Greece. You recognize that the minute the sovereign is disrupted that has ripple effects through risk markets. You become more humble not about what should happen...it's really what's likely to happen, and what's likely to happen is muted growth, concern about public financing, a crowding out of the private sector and therefore we have to impose a risk premium on account of those factors."

The foreign debt issue feeds into Pimco's forecast of the "new normal" and its scenario of slower growth than what would be expected during a recovery. El-Erian said there is a 60 percent chance of "muted growth and dead dynamics" ahead.

Related ETF`s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY); ProShares UltraShort SP500 (ETF)

Investors Intelligence: Bullish Sentiment Is At Lows Not Seen Since March 2009

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence, bullish sentiment is at lows not seen since March 2009:

"Although the S&P 500 is down less than 7.5% from its January high, bulls are heading for the hills. According to Investors Intelligence, bullish sentiment among newsletter writers is currently at 34.1%, which is the lowest level since March 2009. At the same time, bearish sentiment (26.1%) is the highest since November, while the percentage of newsletter writers in the correction camp has sky-rocketed all the way to 39.8%, which is a level that hasn't been seen since 1983." in Bespoke Investment Group

Related ETF`s: SPDR SP 500 (ETF) (SPY); ProShares UltraShort SP500 (ETF) (SDS)

Doug Kass: Retail Stocks Should Be Shorted

Doug Kass, Seabreaze Capital`s manager told Benzinga.com that the US consumer will be weak and that shorting retail stocks is a great investment opportunity:

"I am most confident in the notion that the consumer will be an albatross around the neck of our domestic economy and will be the principal force in producing a shallow recovery in 2010-11. The unemployment picture will remain weaker for a longer period of time than is expected as corporations do without more workers - so the general welfare of the all-important consumer will not improve much. Small business confidence and expansion plans will stay low because of tax, regulatory uncertainty and limited access to bank credit, so hirings will also disappoint from this important source.

For these reasons and others, decades of an aspirational and rabid spending U.S. consumer, who has had an almost unlimited amount of available financing -for the purchase of homes (often more than one!), goods and services - might now be coming to an end. The consumer might even retreat to the legacy that followed Americans after the Great Depression – maintaining the status quo will be their new objective. The comfortable and secure consumer will be one that has a lot in the bank not an extra handbag or automobile. Retail stocks should be shorted – perhaps even with impunity!"

Related stocks and ETF`s: Consumer Discretionary SPDR (ETF) (XLY), Home Depot Inc. (HD), Ford Motor Co. (F), Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM)

Roubini: Helping Greece Is A Step In The Right Direction

Nouriel Roubini agrees with a greek bailout but he thinks the best solution would be an IMF program:

"It is a step in the right direction even if my favored choice for Greece is to get a formal IMF program. IMF lending is based on conditionality of achieving certain fiscal and structural goals. In the case of loan guarantees, it's very hard to make those loan guarantees conditional...you either give them—or don't give them."

But Nouriel Roubini said the problems in Greece are only the "tip of the iceberg" and that the high public deficit and loss of external competitiveness is shared by Spain and Portugal. So contagion can be an issue going forward.

Related stocks: National Bank of Greece (ADR) (NBG)

Jeremy Grantham: The S&P 500 Is Worth 850

Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist at GMO, believes the US stock market is 20% overpriced:

"The market is worth only 850 or so, thus, any advance from here will make it again seriously overpriced, although the high-quality component is still relatively cheap"

"This is likely to give us below-average GDP growth over seven years and more than our share of below-average profit margins and price-earnings ratios" Grantham says.

Grantham adds that the american consumer is as badly leveraged as ever:

"Up until the last few months, I was counting on the Fed and the Administration to begin to get the point that low rates held too long promote asset bubbles, which are extremely dangerous to the economy and financial system. Now, however, the penny is dropping, and I realize the Fed is unwittingly willing to risk a third speculative phase, which is supremely dangerous this time because its arsenal now is almost empty."

Jeremy Grantham is the Chairman of the Board of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, a Boston based asset management firm well known among institutional investors. Grantham started one of the world's first index funds in the early 1970s. As of early 2009, GMO reported on its web site that it managed more than 85 billion dollars.

Related ETF`s: SPDR SP 500 (ETF) (SPY)

Gabelli: S&P Will Rally To 1,300 This Year

Mario Gabelli thinks the bull market in stocks is not over and expects the S&P 500 Index to rally to 1,300 points during the course of this year:

“There’s always going to be a reflexive action, a knee- jerk reaction, but it’s not a signal that the bull market is over. I see rising earnings this year and next year pulling the market higher. There’s a good a chance the S&P 500 sees 1,300 before the year is out.”

The S&P 500 is now nearly as oversold as it was at some of the worst points of the financial crisis. The S&P 500 Index is trading range at 3 standard deviations below the index's 50-day moving average. The index is currently trading right at the bottom of this range, which didn't happen that often during the last bear market. It definitely hasn't been this oversold at any point during this ongoing rally. The index is now down 9% from its closing high on January 19th, which is very close to the standard 10% correction.

Related ETF`S: SPDR SP 500 (ETF) (SPY)

Geithner: The United States Will Never Lose Its Aaa Debt Rating.

Tim Geithner told ABC News that a sovereign debt downgrade will never happen in the US,

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said the U.S. is in no danger of losing its Aaa debt rating even though the Obama administration has predicted a $1.6 trillion budget deficit in 2010.

“Absolutely not,” Geithner said, when asked in an ABC News interview broadcast today whether a downgrade is a concern. “That will never happen to this country.”

Geithner said investors around the world turn to U.S. Treasury securities and dollar-denominated assets whenever they are worried about global stability. That reflects “basic confidence” in the U.S. and its ability to bounce back from the global recession, he said.

Moody’s Investors Service Inc. last week said the U.S. government’s bond rating will come under pressure in the future unless additional measures are taken to reduce budget deficits projected for the next decade. in Bloomberg.com

But Peter Schiff is not so optimistic. He said on Friday, "people are looking at the wrong things. Things like the risk of Greece defaulting and forgeting about the greater risk of the United States defaulting. Because I think the US is in worst shape then most countries in Europe. If you just look at the situation in Greece, I now their debt to GDP ratio is higher than ours. But our GDP is a flop. If you look just at the manufacturing part of the GDP, goods production and you compare our deficits to that...it`s off the charts. No other country compares."

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Short US Treasury Bonds

Nassim Nicholas Taleb advised shorting US Treasury bonds will decline. It’s “a no brainer” to sell short Treasuries, Taleb, said at a conference in Moscow today. “Every single human being should have that trade.”

“Deficits are like putting dynamite in the hands of children,” Taleb said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “They can get out of control very quickly.”

Taleb thinks that we are worse then we were in 2009,

“The problem we have in the United States, the level of debt is still very high and being converted to government debt,” Taleb said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “We are worse-off today than we were last year. In the United States and in Europe, you have fewer people employed and a larger amount of debt.”

Nassim Taleb warned that democracies may even face some challenges in the near future, “Democracies can’t handle austerity measures very well,” Taleb added. “We’re going to have a severe problem.”

George Soros: Real Threat Of A Double Dip Recession In The United States

George Soros sees a real threat of a double dip recession in the United States because there is increasing concern about the budget deficit and the growing national debt and that diminishes the chances of additional stimulus:

"The markets are now stabilized. The premiums have shrunk back to normal levels. So that's fine. And the economy has begun to move forward. But it's only moving forward because it's pushed by the stimulus. And that's particularly true in the United States. At the same time now, there's increasing concern about the budget deficit and the growing national debt. And that will stand in the way of additional stimulus. And that creates-- I think a real threat-- of a double dip."

Pimco`s El-Erian Is Bearish On Stocks

Mohamed A. El-Erian said the largest stock market decline in 11 months may worsen amid persistent U.S. joblessness and economic growth that trails analysts forecasts.

Investors have wrongly priced in an “orderly” withdrawal of stimulus measures, a rebound in bank lending and coordinated government policy to restore growth. That means Wall Street projections for gains in 2010 may prove incorrect and prices will slump, he said.

“Investors may well find that January’s global equity sell-off was just a precursor to a disappointing year for several asset classes. The global financial crisis has undermined growth and job creation; it has clogged many of the pipes that allocate funds to productive uses; and it has rapidly taken public debt and the budget deficit to worrisome levels.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 3.7 percent in January, more than any month since February 2009, after China set higher reserves for lenders and U.S. President Barack Obama proposed curbs on risk taking at banks. The retreat pared the S&P 500’s gain since sinking to a 12-year low in March to 59 percent.

“Judging from market valuations, I sense quite a gap between consensus market expectations and key political and economic realities, especially in the U.S.,” Mohamed A. El-Erian, added.

Paul Volcker`s Plan To Fix The Financial System

Paul Volcker exposed his plan to fix the financial system in a NY Times op-ed this weekend. Here are the plan`s highlights:

1 - Prevent banks from owning hedge funds and other proprietary trading vehicles

2 - Give the government resolution authority to step in, liquidate, or sell any firm it deems to be in trouble

3 - Make shareholders, management, and bondholders pay for any costs associated with this

This plan is targeted to solve the "Too Big To Fail" issue. Under Volcker's plan, big firms would be allowed to fail in an orderly fashion, with their owners and lenders taking the hit.

Seasonality Does Not Favor Stock Investments In February

Bespoke Investment Group just published an interesting research about the monthly performance of the Dow Jones Industrials over the last 100 Years. Seasonality does not favor stock market investments in February:

"Below is a chart highlighting the average monthly performance of the Dow over the last 100 years. As shown, the Dow has only averaged declines in two months over the last 100 years -- February and September. The average change for the Dow in February has been -0.15%, and the index has been higher for the month 51% of the time.

The average change of the Dow in January over the last 100 years has been +0.97%, and this January we saw the Dow decline nearly 3.5%. Maybe this month will go against the long-term average as well and we'll see gains." in Bespoke