Gabelli`s Stock Pick: National Fuel Gas (NFG)

Mario Gabelli was on CNBC earlier today and selected National Fuel Gas (NFG) as his stock pick.

Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) Swims Against The Tide

In yesterday's sell-off, only 1 of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index finished higher on the day Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (Public, NYSE:ZMH). yesterday's net advance/decline (A/D) reading of -498 (1 advancer minus 499 decliners) equals the worst single day A/D reading in the S&P 500 since 1990. The only other day where the net A/D reading was this bad was on September 29th 2008.

Related ETF`s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS)

Toll Brothers (TOL): Price Chart Signals A Double Dip In The Housing Market

Shares of Toll Brothers (TOL) look set to sink further, which signals a double-dip in the US housing market and severe risks for the economy in general according to Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital:

"It's a lead indicator. America doesn't need anymore new nice houses and it won't need any more for several years. It's indicating there is another dip in this sector down the road and probably from early next year when many mortgages reset"

Paul Krugman: Early Stages Of A Third Depression

“We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression. It will probably look more like the Long Depression than the much more severe Great Depression. But the cost — to the world economy and, above all, to the millions of lives blighted by the absence of jobs — will nonetheless be immense.

And this third depression will be primarily a failure of policy. Around the world — most recently at last weekend’s deeply discouraging G-20 meeting — governments are obsessing about inflation when the real threat is deflation, preaching the need for belt-tightening when the real problem is inadequate spending.”

Paul Krugman

Related investments: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID)

It’s Been Impossible For Stock Pickers Lately

“It’s been impossible for stock pickers lately, it’s been less about stock selection, less about fundamentals or company management, and it’s been all about macro.”

Savita Subramanian, quantitative strategist at Bank of America Corp.

Richard Russell: Buy Gold Stocks

"The bear keeps torturing the majority. If only the authorities could straighten out the oil problem, the housing problem and the unemployment problem, everything would be fine. But the market is not interested in current problems, it is looking ahead to the disaster that we will see in late 2010...

Holding stocks here is a sure ticket to a smaller bank account. People cannot take it into their psyches that this is the resumption of one of [history's] great bear markets. Our salvation is bullion gold. The gold mining stocks are also doing beautifully."

Richard Russell, Dow Theory Newsletter

Related Stocks: Kinross Gold Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:KGC), Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (USA) (Public, NYSE:AEM), Fronteer Gold Inc. (Public, AMEX:FRG), Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:EGO), New Gold Inc. (USA) (Public, AMEX:NGD), Newmont Mining Corporation (Public, NYSE:NEM), Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:ABX), Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) (Public, NYSE:AUY), Goldcorp Inc. (USA) (Public, NYSE:GG), NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (Public, AMEX:NG)

General Electric (GE) Is Too Cheap

At 15 USD and change, I think General Electric (NYSE:GE) is too cheap. As the world financial picture clears a little bit, General Electric (NYSE: GE), which is really a finance company, should do extremely well."

Jon Najarian, in Benzinga

Najarian: Bullish On Anadarko Petroleum And Some Other Energy Names

"I like a lot of energy stocks down here, quite frankly. The baby has been thrown out with the bath water in the energy sector. If you look at Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC), for example, the stock was at 72 USD before the Gulf oil spill. You were able to buy it last week for around 33 USD."

Jon Najarian, in Benzinga

Related investments: Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:APC), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSE:XLE)

Market Worries: Housing And Corporate Earnings

"Worries are increasing that housing could be rolling over again as May existing home sales fell 2.2%. Housing activity has started to decline substantially in recent weeks. In addition, the first glimpses at the upcoming earnings season has been relatively cautious as several companies have issued tepid guidance."

in The Prag Cap

Related ETF`s: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS)

We Have A Fed Meeting This Week

The FOMC announcement for the June 22-23 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the fed funds target rate unchanged. With continued market skittishness over sovereign debt problems in Greece and other European countries, the Fed is likely to be cautious about plans for unwinding its expanded balance sheet. Fed watchers likely will focus on statement wording regarding the status of the economy—notably any signs of labor market improvement.

in The Prag Cap

China Signals End To US Dollar Peg

The Chinese Central Bank announced this weekend that it will proceed with exchange rate reform and allow a more flexible currency, signalling an end to the renminbi’s peg to the US dollar.

Peter Schiff Is Bullish On Stocks

In his latest video market update Peter Schiff states his bullishness on stocks and on oil. He is even forecasting an explosive move in oil into the nineties.

Felix Zulauf Is Ultra Bearish

Great insight into what may happen in the market from one of the best strategists out there: Felix Zulauf Says The Market Will Go Below The March 2009 Low. He Has Been Right All The Way...

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY) and ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS)

Titanium Metals (TIE) Is The Best Performing Stock Since The Low

The stocks that were hit the hardest during the latest stock market correction have bounced the most since June 7th (the day of the low), but the best performing stock since then is Titanium Metals (TIE).

Titanium Metals (TIE) is up 61 % year to date. A true high flyer in this market.

Chart:

Company`s Description: Titanium Metals Corporation (TIMET) is a producer of titanium melted and mill products. The Company has titanium production facilities in the United States and Europe.

Blackrock`s Bob Doll Does Not Expect A Double Dip

“Double dips don’t happen all that often as long as we have the economy improving, interest rates low, the yield curve steep, leading economic indicators pointing higher, earnings improving, and jobs improving. I don’t think a double dip has a very high probability.

The big earthquake was late '08, early '09 and we’re going to have a bunch of aftershocks.”

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS)

ECRI`s Leading Indicators Continue To Point To A Slowdown

"The Economic Cycle Research Institute recently released its Weekly Leading Index numbers. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index level has been steadily declining since the end of April. Furthermore, the ECRI Weekly Leading Growth Index had a negative weekly reading of 3.46 for the first time since mid-2009, which marked the beginning of the end of U.S. economic woes.

Are we to see a double dip in the coming months as forecasted by the negative reading in this leading indicator? ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan stated a need for a “persistent” decline in the index in order to determine the possibility of a double dip in the U.S. economy."

in The Prag Cap

Related: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS)

BP: It`s Dirty Cheap Says Barry Ritholtz

BP is trading 40% below its 200-day moving average and 40% below its enterprise value, explains Barry Ritholtz of Fusion IQ. It’s reached a point beyond being a value trap. Now it’s either a dirt cheap stock or a company that’s going out of business and I don’t think it’s the latter.

in CNBC.com

Related Stocks: BP plc (ADR) (Public, NYSE:BP), Transocean LTD (Public, NYSE:RIG) and Halliburton Company (Public, NYSE:HAL)

Prechter: Sell The Dollar, Buy Swiss Francs

"Bob Prechter has called this deflationary market environment about as well as anyone over the last few years. Prechter says now is the time to sell the dollar, buy Francs and expect a minor bounce in the S&P. But don’t be fooled, he thinks the bear market is continuing and that stocks have much lower to move over the longer-term"

In The Pragmatic Capitalism

Topic related ETF`s: CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (Public, NYSE:FXF), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS), PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (Public, NYSE:UDN)

The Impending Second Wave Of Decline In The Housing Market Has Largely Gone Unnoticed

"While the market has been focused on the Euro, China and the BP oil spill, the impending second wave of decline in the housing market has largely gone unnoticed. Recent housing numbers have mostly been bolstered by the home buyers’ tax credit that expired on April 30th, the date when contracts had to be signed to qualify."

By Comstock

Stocks: Lennar Corporation (LEN), D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM), Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

Etf: iShares Dow Jones US Home Const. (ETF) (Public, NYSE:ITB)

How To Trade The S&P 500 Index Futures?

I found this interesting research about the hourly performance of the S&P 500 Index:

"The chart below shows the average hourly change of the S&P 500 since the April peak. In the early stages of the correction, the last hour of the day was strongest and indicated that investors were eager to buy on weakness. In the last two weeks, however, we have seen a complete reversal to the point where the last hour of the day has gone from the strongest to the weakest. Investors have gone from buying on weakness to selling at any price.

In terms of what this means for the market, there really aren’t any compelling statistics that say this is good or bad for the market going forward. In the present case, however, the period of last hour weakness coincided with when we broke below the lows from the flash crash. Since then it appears as though investors have lost a lot of trust in the market and aren’t willing to hold stocks overnight. So while most people thought that the flash crash would be an event that caused investors to lose confidence in the market, it wasn't until after the flash crash lows were broken to the downside (an event which actually validated the down move on the day of the flash crash) that investors really started to show it."

The most interesting regularity that I have spotted in this study is the opposite performance between 2-3 pm and 3-4 pm. How can we play this? If the S&P 500 goes down from 2-3 pm, you buy the last hour and if the S&P 500 Index goes up in the 2-3 pm time interval you short the S&P 500 Index. Of course this trade can be done through emini S&P Futures or through SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY) and through ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS) the inverse S&P 500 leveraged ETF for the short trades.

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Morgan Stanley: The Euro Will Go To 1.12

Sophia Drossos, co-head of global foreign-exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley, talks with Bloomberg's Betty Liu about the prospects for the euro against the U.S. dollar. (Source: Bloomberg)

related stocks: Morgan Stanley (Public, NYSE:MS), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (Public, NYSE:FCX), Alcoa Inc. (Public, NYSE:AA), Goldcorp Inc. (USA) (Public, NYSE:GG)

Are Option Prices Signaling A Rally?

“When bearish puts cost 50 percent more than bullish calls, the S&P 500 rallied 28 times during the next six months and declined 6 times, according to OptionMetrics data going back to 1996 compiled by Bloomberg. The biggest gain started in November 1997, when the index rose 18 percent and the premium increased to 54.1 percent, data show. The S&P 500 plunged 35 percent after the skew reached 50.2 percent in June 2008.”

in Bloomberg.com

Related ETF`s: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY)

Investment Quote

“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”

-Baron Rothschild, 1871

Related ETF`S: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (Public, NYSE:IWM)

Fidelity Investments Funds Are Shining As Peers Struggle

Fidelity Investments’ Contrafund and Growth Company Fund are alone among the 10 largest U.S. stock mutual funds in beating their benchmarks this year. The $63 billion Contrafund, managed by Boston-based Will Danoff, gained 0.3 percent this year through June 3, beating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by 56 basis points during that period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The $32 billion Fidelity Growth Company Fund rose 2.5 percent, beating its benchmark, the Russell 3000 Growth Index, by 2.6 percentage points.

U.S. stock mutual funds have lost $15.3 billion to withdrawals this year through May, according to preliminary numbers from the ICI

in Bloomberg.com

Related exchange traded funds: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS)

Insider Buying Is Picking Up

As we noted last week insider buying has jumped in recent weeks as stocks have swooned and insider’s have taken advantage of the downturn. The recent spat of buying was the largest weekly buying since the depths of credit crisis near the market lows in 2008. Insiders bought 31 million USD worth of stock last week while selling over 588 million USD. Selling remains staggeringly high when compared to buying, but the buying data remains the far more useful indicator in terms of market direction.

in The Pragmatic Capitalism

Related: Legg Mason, Inc. (Public, NYSE:LM) and Saul Centers, Inc. (Public, NYSE:BFS)

AAII: Individual Investors Are Leaving The Stock Market

“Individual investors held 50.9% of their portfolios in stocks and stock funds according to the May 2010 AAII Asset Allocation Survey. This is a 9.5 percentage-point drop from April and the smallest allocation to equities since May 2009. The historical average is 60%.

Bond and bond funds accounted for 25.5% of individual investor portfolios. This is the highest allocation to fixed income since the survey started in November 1990. The percentage of portfolio dollars held in bonds and bond funds rose 5.1 percentage points from April. The historical average is 15%.

Individual investors kept 23.6% of their portfolio dollars in cash, a 4.4 percentage point increase. The historical average is 25%.”

Source: AAII

related etf`s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS)

Gold Could Double From Here

“Demand is always difficult to forecast, especially for jewellery, but we do know that central banks have very deep pockets and bought more gold last year (425 tons) than at any other time since 1964", David Rosenberg, Chief Market Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates

When benchmarked against the CPI, money supply and GDP, there is no doubt that gold can easily double from here, according to David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates.

Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (Public, NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (Public, NYSE:GDX)

Hedge Fund`s Stock Pick: KeyCorp (KEY)

“They will make money here in the second quarter. When they report a quarter where they make money where all their credit indicators are positive, that will be a catalyst to move KeyCorp’s stock higher.”

Thomas Brown, CEO at Second Curve Capital LLC, a New York hedge fund

Related Stock: KeyCorp (Public, NYSE:KEY)

Roubini: Brazil Is Overheating

“In Brazil, like in many other emerging market economies, there is now evidence of overheating of the economy. Expected and actual inflation is starting to rise, and that implies that over the next few quarters there has to be a tightening of monetary policy, gradually but progressively, in order to make sure that inflation expectations remain anchored.”

Nouriel Roubini in Sao Paulo

Related ETF`s: iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ) and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (Public, NYSE:EEM)